you saw that right?
yeah yeah over there.
no not that.
stop touching it jesus christ just-
Ok I think we got off on the wrong foot.
I was talking about this:
[2023-02-14] DAL 50 BOS 12
What a sight!
What do you mean that doesn't explain anything?
Is it the numbers? Like you know those right? 1, 2, 3, etc?
Ok how abou- ok ok fine I get it you know dates too. Don't have to brag.
It's from a hockey game. Dallas Stars vs the Boston Bruins.
All I'm saying is that it was the first of it's kind.
Why does no one look anymore.
You don't seem terribly engaged with this whole thing.
'Cause that guy saw it already'? What are you on about.
The Bruins lost 50 of 62 faceoffs, an 81 pct failure rate.
Their worst performance since the league began compiling faceoff data in ’97-’98.
@GlobeKPD on February 14, 2023
You're really going with a dude named Kevin on this one.
I know he seems like the good cop of the principle/vice-principle duo but that doesn't mean he gets it.
Next you're gonna tell me theres already a whole thread talking about it being unlikely.
Despite losing so many draws, the Bruins still managed to outshoot the Stars 37-31. This wasn't a game where they lost the possession battle but squeaked out goals from odd-man rushes - they were very much in the game throughout.
Faceoff percentage tends to be a little overrated in terms of it's importance, but to win 19% is just a weird, weird outlier.
u/FC37 on February 15, 2023
Nah nah nah you aren't getting it, y'all just don't get it.
Oh 'I skipped the part where the Bruins won'? Who fucking cares, that Bruins team was the winningest team of all time in the regular season, they did that all the time.
Really proving you don't get it.
Relax rela- RELAX.
C'mon now no need to go back to the cat at the top.
Alright fresh start - let's keep it simple.
Uh… faceoffs!
Faceoffs are just coin flips. Who doesn't love flippin' coin.
There isn't much of an edge to gain.
Well unless it's in a single game.
With a lower sample size..
Wait a second, 50 faceoff wins… 62 total faceoffs… that means…
| Team | Date | FOs | Faceoff Win Rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 2009-11-04 | 47 | 0.82979 |
| DAL | 2023-02-14 | 62 | 0.80645 |
| LAK | 2021-11-18 | 46 | 0.80435 |
| TOR | 1998-03-04 | 60 | 0.80000 |
| CAR | 2018-02-01 | 48 | 0.79167 |
80.65% win rate! That's why everyone is so excited!
Yipee-Yahoo!
Don't I feel silly. Look at that.
2nd highest faceoff win rate since they started recording the damn thing.
Man.
Right up there with our good ol' buddies the Buffalo Sabers at 82.98%!
Feels great to get in on it with everyone.
Ahh.
…only 2nd though hey?
God I'm sick of it. Let me just-
They're spitting on the craft of coin flipping.
Just look at it. 47 flips.. 47!
You know what matters? Sample size.
Cause we fucking love flipping coin.
Here are the rules of tossin':
- ABF - Always be flipping. Learn to love the rattle. That's when wacky shit happens.
- We enjoy the coin, not the sides. Don't bias yourself to old politicians or symbols of inanimate objects.
This isn't about 'winning'. It's about bumbling into a magical place.
There's a lot of normal places unfortunatly.
Say we flip a coin 4 times. You'll have 16 (2^4) possible places.
If you get two tails and two heads, it's just like every other result.
However of those permutations if you get 3 heads in a row it's wayyy cooler then a simply getting two heads and two tails just because it's less likely.
Just read the damn hand book:
With all that said.
Faceoff Win Rate vs. Rarity - much better.
We got some of the greats up there.
The '03 Bruins with a solid 1/30,045 on November 12th. Those beauties fit 66 flips in.
Buffalo still gets their credit at 1/180,517 despite their faults.
..and the moment of truth.
Dallas.
At a whopping 1/314,106.
Now we're talking.
Thank god for a little validation.
Wait a sec, is that..?
Just gotta twist a couple knobs here.
| Team | Date | FOs | Rarity |
|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 2023-02-14 | 62 | 1/823,464 |
| DAL | 1998-03-04 | 60 | 1/314,106 |
| BUF | 2009-11-04 | 47 | 1/180,517 |
| WAS | 1998-11-04 | 60 | 1/82,326 |
| BOS | 2003-11-11 | 66 | 1/30,045 |
Ah shit there's two of 'em.
Well at least I made my point.
Oh now you want more?
Let's talk deviation.
To make it fair I'll even use log(rarity).
| BUF (2009) | DAL (2023) | |
|---|---|---|
| STD | 6.2 | 10.6 |
There ya have it - cope.
Still not convinced?
Consider the fact that Bruins won this game.
While losing in faceoff percentage.
But still some how getting more shots then their opponent.
In the least likely faceeoff result in recorded history.
Yeah it's only that one.
Worth noting is the other outlier at the bottom of the chart.
It's an important one.
Not only does it have an insane boxscore of 10 shots on goal total.
There were 62 total penalty minutes.
Love a barn burner.
Not even taking into consideration how little 47 faceoffs is. The average is like 60 man.
I thought I'd see at least one person bring it up.
One.
Just one person who likes flipping coins.
Or I'm wrong. That's usually right.
If I had to throw a dart at the unknown unknowns to explain this - I'm going with the fact that I don't truly understand unlikeliness.
A lot of stuff happens ya know? Of course unlikely stuff is gonna happen, don't have to freak out about it.
Some statistician out there could point me to an equation writen in 1885 that shows how likely outliers are.
'Yeah, they only came up with it to determine how many boats were needed to make with consideration for the amount of kraken and sirens on the open sea.'
Like most things.